The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers an AMOC shutdown during this century unlikely.
Notes on verification
Directly confirmed by IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 9 text stating medium confidence in no abrupt AMOC collapse before 2100, corroborated by Carbon Brief and academic sources. Note IPCC confidence is 'medium,' not high, and newer research suggests this may be revised in AR7. [tier=unverified indep_score=0.3 clusters=3 claim_tier=notable] [rescored 2026-09-15: curated origin-host map (PR #65); unclassified hosts no longer scored as aggregators]
Sources
- Is the Atlantic Ocean's great conveyer belt really slowing ... (seed:science_and_space)
- https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/ (corroboration)
- https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/amoc-explainer/index.html (corroboration)
- https://climate.sun.ac.za/uncategorized/amoc-shut-down-by-2100-should-important-new-results-be-used-to-update-an-approved-ipcc-consensus-on-risk/ (corroboration)