NIE 15-90, issued in October 1990, judged that Yugoslavia's breakup would be violent and that the conflict might spill over into adjacent regions.
Notes on verification
Confirmed by the declassified primary NIE document, the U.S. State Department Office of the Historian, and a peer-reviewed academic republication/analysis, all independent sources corroborating the date and substance of the prediction. [tier=silver indep_score=1.0 clusters=2 claim_tier=notable]
Sources
- CIA Support to Policymakers: Unheeded Warning of War - CSI (seed:military_and_intelligence)
- https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/breakup-yugoslavia (corroboration)
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2016.1259814 (corroboration)