NIE 15-90 identified Bosnia as 'the greatest threat' of violence in Yugoslavia's breakup, even though the estimate focused more heavily on Kosovo, where fighting appeared imminent.
Notes on verification
Directly confirmed by verbatim CIA monograph text and corroborated by Atlantic Council analysis and a peer-reviewed article by Treverton and Miles discussing the same NIE. [tier=silver indep_score=0.925 clusters=2 claim_tier=notable]
Sources
- CIA Support to Policymakers: Unheeded Warning of War - CSI (seed:military_and_intelligence)
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2016.1259814 (corroboration)
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/the-big-story/bosnias-forgotten-war-is-still-with-us/ (corroboration)