NIE 15-90 identified Bosnia as 'the greatest threat' of violence in Yugoslavia, even though the estimate focused more heavily on Kosovo, where fighting appeared imminent.
Notes on verification
Directly confirmed by CIA's own declassified account of NIE 15-90, with independent corroboration from Atlantic Council analysis and a peer-reviewed academic source by the same authors. [tier=silver indep_score=0.925 clusters=2 claim_tier=notable]
Sources
- CIA Support to Policymakers: Unheeded Warning of War - CSI (seed:military_and_intelligence)
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2016.1259814 (corroboration)
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/the-big-story/bosnias-forgotten-war-is-still-with-us/ (corroboration)