According to the study, heat-attributable deaths in Spain currently total about 1,300 per year and would rise to about 13,000 per year in the 2051-2100 period under a no-adaptation scenario with the RCP8.5 emissions pathway.
Notes on verification
Figures confirmed by peer-reviewed study (Díaz et al. 2019, Environmental Research) with precise values (1,414 and 12,896 deaths/year) matching rounded public communication figures (1,300 and 13,000). Multiple independent sources corroborate, though all trace back to one underlying study. [tier=gold indep_score=0.867 clusters=3 claim_tier=notable | framework convergence=single on Díaz et al. 2019 study using RCP8.5 climate projections (AEMET/CMIP5) combined with province-level heat-mortality threshold models (upstreams: Díaz et al. 2019, Environmental Research, 'Mortality attributable to high temperatures over the 2021–2050 and 2051–2100 time horizons in Spain: Adaptation and economic estimate') — publishers independent, evidence may not be | kind=attributed eligibility=high]
Sources
- Un estudio cifra en cerca de 50.000 millones de euros anuales el coste que tendría para España la no adaptación al calor - ISCIII Portal Web (seed:health_and_medicine)
- https://www.elagoradiario.com/economia-circular/no-adaptarse-olas-calor-costara-50-000-millones-espana/ (corroboration)
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935119301215 (corroboration)
- https://researchgate.net/publication/331374059_Mortality_attributable_to_high_temperatures_over_the_2021-2050_and_2051-2100_time_horizons_in_Spain_Adaptation_and_economic_estimate (corroboration)