A statistical-model study using temperature data from the northern Atlantic region concluded that an AMOC shutdown could occur between 2025 and 2095.
Notes on verification
The core claim accurately reflects the 2023 Nature Communications study by Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen, confirmed by the original paper and multiple independent news sources. However, expert reactions from the Science Media Centre highlight significant methodological caveats: the 2025-2095 window is sensitive to choices in constructing the SST time series, with alternative data versions suggesting a much wider range (2024-2180). This is disputed territory in climate science, warranting medium rather than high confidence. [cascade flags: aggregator_dropped_primary_exists | tier=silver indep_score=0.867 clusters=3 claim_tier=exceptional]
Sources
- Is the Atlantic Ocean's great conveyer belt really slowing ... (seed:science_and_space)
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w (corroboration)
- https://news.yahoo.com/atlantic-ocean-currents-system-could-170820409.html (corroboration)
- https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-warning-of-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation/ (corroboration)